E-mail a friendDavid Yepsen
airdate August 13, 2007
David Yepsen is the chief political correspondent for The Des Moines Register and has covered Iowa government and politics for more than 30 years. A native of the state, he began his newspaper career at the Quad-City Times in Davenport. He earned a masters degree in public administration from Drake University and was a fellow at the Joan Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics and Public Policy at Harvard University. Yepsen is also a panelist on Iowa Public Television's Iowa Press program.
David Yepsen
Tavis: On September 27th, in prime time, right here on PBS I'll be moderating our second all-American presidential forum, this one featuring Republican candidates at Morgan State University in Baltimore. Leading up to that event, there are any number of other key events for Republicans, including this past weekend's Iowa straw poll.
Longtime political reporter David Yepsen was in Ames, Iowa over the weekend covering this traditional event. He is one of the most widely respected voices on politics in Iowa, and a 30-year veteran of the "Des Moines Register." He joins us tonight from Des Moines, Iowa. Mr. Yepsen, nice to have you on the program, sir.
David Yepsen: It's good to be with you.
Tavis: Let me start with the obvious - maybe the not so obvious. We are told that Mitt Romney won this contest, but did he really win?
Yepsen: Well, I don't think he did. He got more votes than anybody else, so in that sense he can claim a victory, but I don't think it means a whole lot if you win a fight where the other champions don't get in the ring. Rudy Giuliani did not participate in this straw poll, John McCain did not participate in this straw poll, and Fred Thompson did not participate in the straw poll.
Fred Thompson's going to get in this race probably later this week. And so, what does it mean that Mitt Romney won? He was expected to win, and he did. I think what is significant, probably, is the way the bottom of the Republican field is starting to sort itself out, and perhaps the biggest winner was former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.
He defeated Kansas senator Sam Brownback for the second place position, and that was a surprise. And it's an indication that Mike Huckabee is probably starting to rally some of the social conservatives. And if you want proof of who the big winner is, the front page story in "The New York Times" this morning was Mike Huckabee's finishing second - it was not Mitt Romney's first place showing.
Tavis: And yet, "The New York Times" story notwithstanding, they say perception is reality, and if you are the person who comes out on top - "The New York Times," of course, did, in fact, put Huckabee on the cover, but with all due respect to the "Times," there are other publications, and everywhere else I looked, people were talking about the fact, and you can't avoid it, that Mitt Romney is a winner. That's got to do something as a shot in the arm, if nothing else, for his campaign.
Yepsen: Oh, sure, there's no question about that. As I said, he got more votes than anybody else, it was a win. That was sort of expected, though, Tavis, and I think the Mike Huckabee - the battle for social conservatives is an important one going on inside the Republican Party right now, and so you've got to give a tip of the hat to Mike Huckabee today.
Tavis: What do we know about what Romney spent to get this "victory," in quotes, versus what Huckabee spent to get the front page of "The New York Times" today?
Yepsen: (Laughs) Well, Mitt Romney spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on this. He's had consultants working on his strategy to win this straw poll, and Mike Huckabee bought a few tickets and had a lot more people show up. This straw poll historically has been a controversial, but it's an important test of candidates' strength.
Whenever we've had a contested GOP caucus and primary fight, generally the nominee comes out of the top three finishers in this straw poll. It's controversial because it's almost a pay-to-play thing. Candidates buy tickets for their supporters, it costs $35 a ticket for people to vote, and then they give them to their supporters and have them show up to vote.
And so that's a bit of a controversy around this straw poll, but it is true that all of that is an important organizational test. If you as a candidate can raise money, provide your supporters with tickets, bring buses to get them to Ames, Iowa, feed them, get them voted and then back home, that is some indication of your organizational ability and that is often a harbinger for how well somebody does in the caucuses later.
Tavis: To your latter point, then, which is exactly where I wanted to go, what can we take out of this with regard to what Mr. Romney might do? To your earlier point, Giuliani wasn't there, McCain wasn't there, Thompson wasn't there. But the fact that they weren't there means that Romney obviously was, and has some organization in place. I have to think that that organization, again, if nothing else, bodes well for him when the real deal in Iowa takes place.
Yepsen: And I think you're absolutely right. Mitt Romney is running one of the best campaigns I've ever seen in these years I've covered these caucus campaigns. He is on message, he is disciplined; these people know what they're doing. They're very cool, and I they reflect the personality of the candidate. It's a very corporate executive type campaign that he's running, and so I think he's still the frontrunner in Iowa's caucuses even though he lags in the national polls.
Tavis: All the talk about his being a Mormon - how do you read that a couple of days after how well he did - all things considered, how well he did in Iowa?
Yepsen: I don't think that the Mormon - his religious faith is that big of an issue in Iowa. Some religious conservatives have a problem with Mormonism, but you don't hear that so much here. I do think it's a bigger problem in other parts of the country. Some of Romney's people think they have a bigger problem with that in the south, where religious conservatives are arguably even more conservative.
I would expect Governor Romney at some point will give a speech to the country similar to what John Kennedy did in 1960 when he talked about his Catholicism, in which Mitt Romney is going to address the questions of his religious faith and how it's him and his values that are on the line running for president, and it's not his church.
I also think, Tavis, one thing that actually does help Governor Romney here is that he draws some support from Mormons. Just as John Kennedy drew lots of support from Catholics, you go to Mitt Romney's events and you will see other members of his church who are showing up, who are getting involved, and that's a sign of strength for a candidate to bring new people into the process.
Tavis: It's not even just his faith - let's start with the guy's family. He had, like, 100 family members in Iowa caucusing for him. (Laughter)
Yepsen: He has a big family and they're all over campaigning.
Tavis: Yeah. Let me go back to Mike Huckabee. I know Mike Huckabee, I like him - he's a nice guy. And as you made note from covering him, very personable. Let me go back to that because people keep talking about the fact that what Thompson has going for him is that conservatives are - certainly religious, Christian conservatives - not yet happy with the field. If I read what Huckabee did in Iowa, to your point earlier, he's starting to catch on a little bit.
What does that say, then - what does that portend for this big announcement we're expecting from Fred Thompson?
Yepsen: Well, there's some people who think Fred Thompson may peak on the day he announces. He's not gotten off to a very good start here. It's late, there's been a lot of controversy that he hasn't raised enough money, had to shake up his campaign. So we'll have to see. The grass is always greener on the other side of the fence, and a lot of Republicans are looking around thinking well, gee, maybe there's some other flavor here that we want to try.
So I think when Senator Thompson gets in this race he's going to have to campaign just like everybody else. People are going to look at his issues and the way he conducts himself on the campaign trail, and maybe he will take off. But it is late, and it is true that Governor Huckabee's a very personable candidate, very personable campaigner, good sense of humor.
Not a down and angry conservative, but a real upbeat sort of message. He's going to have some appeal. And I also think some of the early polling indicates that when Fred Thompson gets in the race, he may take some votes away from Mitt Romney in this state. Because conservatives in this state have sort of looked at Mitt Romney as a guy who is electable, he can maybe go the distance.
And some, once Fred Thompson's in the race, they may think here's a more electable conservative; I'm going to move from Romney to Fred Thompson. So we'll have to see how the race stands in a few more weeks.
Tavis: Before I jump to my exit question about Karl Rove, one other question about Iowa, specifically. We all know you stumble in Iowa, you stumble in New Hampshire coming out the gate, it's very difficult to gain ground, to pick up steam after that. I'm curious as to whether or not your read at this point is that by not being there, McCain, by not being there, Giuliani, by not being there, Thompson, makes it difficult again for them to get off to the kind of start out of Iowa, out of New Hampshire, that they're going to need to sustain whatever momentum they may have right now.
I'm looking at these polls - what does it mean that Giuliani and all these other guys are at the top of the contest if, again, when the real deal happens in Iowa and New Hampshire they can't come out of the gate and sustain those poll numbers?
Yepsen: I think they could be in real trouble if that happens. They are competing in the caucuses, and that is the real deal in January. So the fact they weren't in this straw poll - there's some controversy about whether they should have been here or not. But they clearly have spent time here; they need to spend more time here. They say they're going to spend more time here.
Because you're absolutely right - if you stumble here, this race unfolds so quickly - New Hampshire, South Carolina, all those states on February 5th - that it becomes very difficult for a candidate who does not do well in this state, for them to recover. It's one of the controversial aspects about Iowa and all this front-loading that's going on in the process.
Other states are trying to get part of the say and the limelight here, and the effect of what they're doing is just to make Iowa and New Hampshire that much more important.
Tavis: Karl Rove has announced he's leaving the White House. Anybody on the campaign trail want Karl Rove? Would he help anybody on the campaign trail right about now, or is he too connected to Bush to be of any good to anybody at this point?
Yepsen: I think he's too connected to Bush to be doing much good for anybody publicly. I think he's one of the smartest people in the Republican Party in the country, and certainly his advice would be much sought after - but privately. Karl Rove is a staff person who has really taken on baggage of his own, and I think most staffers who work for a candidate understand that they can't become the issue and expect to survive for long.
Karl Rove has so far withstood legal scrutiny, but I think even he understood it was time to move out of the limelight, take more of a back seat role. So smart guy, his counsel will be very valuable, but I think he will keep a very low profile. And he's said he's not interested in doing any more campaigns.
Tavis: Let me take 30 seconds right quick - I got Kevin Bacon, fine actor, standing by; I want to get to Kevin - but let me ask right quick, and for some this might be a strange question; I'm not even sure there's an answer, but I want to ask anyway. The forum that I'm moderating - the second of our two - in September at Morgan State is getting all of these candidates - Republicans, as we did with Democrats back in June, David - to focus specifically on issues in America that matter to people of color.
We live in the most multicultural, multiracial, multiethnic America ever - I know that Iowa, of course, doesn't necessarily reflect America in terms of the issues of diversity and inclusion. But any reason to believe at all that in Iowa, a particular one of these Republicans connected with the colored folk who do live and work in Iowa?
Yepsen: I don't think so. Not on the Republican side. I think it's too early. I think people of color in this state, like around the country, look at this Republican Party today and see a little bit of anger here. I think some of the effort that President Bush was making to reach out to the Latino community has been eclipsed by this anti-immigrant bashing that comes out of so many Republican speeches.
I think it could be a real problem for the Republican Party down the road. I bet President Bush feels that way, and I'm sure Karl Rove feels that way because they were trying to steer more of a middle course here. Instead, the Republican Party looks right now to be driving Latinos out of their party, just the way they did the Irish 150 years ago.
Tavis: Well, we'll see what they have to say about that - all of them - September 27th at Morgan State in prime time here on PBS. David Yepsen, long-time reporter with the "Des Moines Register," most respected voice in that state on these issues, nice to have you on the program, all the best to you.
Yepsen: Thank you.
Tavis: My pleasure.
Back to August 13, 2007